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URK vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

URK
URK
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
4/1/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 27Sportpark De Vormt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

URK42%
×Draw21%
Ter Leede37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URK
2.08
Ter Leede
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

URK
1.81
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

URK
2.35
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

URK+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URK ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

URK or draw
63%
URK or Ter Leede
79%
Draw or Ter Leede
58%

Winning margin

URK wins by 2+
24%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

URK 1+ goals
87%
URK 2+ goals
61%
URK 3+ goals
34%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
86%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
58%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

URK (draw refunded)
53%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URK attack 1.81 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + URK defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

URK scores more
42%
level
21%
Ter Leede scores more
37%

URK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "URK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

URK 3 – 0 Ter Leede

URK beat Ter Leede 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vormt in Urk.