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Ter Leede vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ter Leede
Ter Leede
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
URK
URK
10/8/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 10Sportpark De Roodemolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ter Leede42%
×Draw22%
URK36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ter Leede
1.83
URK
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ter Leede
1.41
URK
1.65

allows per match

Ter Leede
1.73
URK
2.24

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw
64%
Ter Leede or URK
78%
Draw or URK
58%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+
22%
URK wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals
84%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
54%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
28%
URK 1+ goals
82%
URK 2+ goals
50%
URK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)
54%
URK (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

URK attack 1.65 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ter Leede scores more
42%
level
22%
URK scores more
36%

Ter Leede at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ter Leede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ter Leede 3 – 0 URK

Ter Leede beat URK 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Roodemolen in Sassenheim.