URK 2–4 Rijnvogels: Result & Stats

URK

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Rijnvogels

10/29/2022

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 12Sportpark De Vormt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

URK35%

×Draw21%

Rijnvogels44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

URKExpected goals in this matchRijnvogels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

2.12

URK

1.89

Rijnvogels

2.12

Rijnvogels creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.81

creates per match

1.88

2.35

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

URK

1.81

Rijnvogels

1.88

allows per match

URK

2.35

Rijnvogels

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

URK+0.00on par

Rijnvogels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URK ↓

Rijnvogels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

URK or draw

56%

URK or Rijnvogels

79%

Draw or Rijnvogels

65%

Winning margin

URK wins by 2+

18%

Rijnvogels wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

URK 1+ goals

85%

URK 2+ goals

56%

URK 3+ goals

29%

Rijnvogels 1+ goals

88%

Rijnvogels 2+ goals

62%

Rijnvogels 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

URK (draw refunded)

45%

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

Rijnvogels away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URK attack 1.81 + Rijnvogels defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.89

Rijnvogels attack 1.88 + URK defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

URK scores more

35%

level

21%

Rijnvogels scores more

44%

Rijnvogels at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rijnvogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff