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Rijnvogels vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
URK
URK
4/15/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 29Sportpark De Kooltuin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rijnvogels48%
×Draw22%
URK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnvogels
2.00
URK
1.56

Rijnvogels creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Rijnvogels
1.76
URK
1.65

allows per match

Rijnvogels
1.47
URK
2.24

finishing

Rijnvogels+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnvogels ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rijnvogels or draw
70%
Rijnvogels or URK
78%
Draw or URK
52%

Winning margin

Rijnvogels wins by 2+
27%
URK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rijnvogels 1+ goals
86%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
59%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
32%
URK 1+ goals
79%
URK 2+ goals
46%
URK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
61%
URK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnvogels at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnvogels attack 1.76 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.00

URK attack 1.65 + Rijnvogels defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rijnvogels scores more
48%
level
22%
URK scores more
30%

Rijnvogels at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rijnvogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Rijnvogels 3–1 URK

Rijnvogels beat URK 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Kooltuin in Katwijk aan Zee.