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URK vs Hercules — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

URK
URK
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Hercules
Hercules
4/19/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 30Sportpark De Vormt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

URK36%
×Draw22%
Hercules42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URK
1.79
Hercules
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

URK
1.81
Hercules
1.51

allows per match

URK
2.35
Hercules
1.76

finishing

URK+0.00on par
Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URK ↓

Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

URK or draw
58%
URK or Hercules
78%
Draw or Hercules
64%

Winning margin

URK wins by 2+
19%
Hercules wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

URK 1+ goals
83%
URK 2+ goals
53%
URK 3+ goals
26%
Hercules 1+ goals
85%
Hercules 2+ goals
57%
Hercules 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

URK (draw refunded)
46%
Hercules (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

Hercules away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URK attack 1.81 + Hercules defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hercules attack 1.51 + URK defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

URK scores more
36%
level
22%
Hercules scores more
42%

Hercules at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

URK 0 – 4 Hercules

Hercules beat URK 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vormt in Urk.