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Hercules vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hercules
Hercules
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
URK
URK
11/16/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 13Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hercules53%
×Draw21%
URK26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercules
2.14
URK
1.47

Hercules creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hercules
2.04
URK
1.65

allows per match

Hercules
1.29
URK
2.24

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hercules or draw
74%
Hercules or URK
79%
Draw or URK
47%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+
31%
URK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals
88%
Hercules 2+ goals
63%
Hercules 3+ goals
36%
URK 1+ goals
77%
URK 2+ goals
43%
URK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)
67%
URK (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.14

URK attack 1.65 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hercules scores more
53%
level
21%
URK scores more
26%

Hercules at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hercules vs URK

Hercules beat URK 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Voordorp in Utrecht.