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Uritarra vs Beti Gazte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Uritarra
Uritarra
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Beti Gazte
Beti Gazte
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Estadio Errebale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uritarra55%
×Draw22%
Beti Gazte23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uritarra
1.95
Beti Gazte
1.19

Uritarra creates 64% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Uritarra
1.16
Beti Gazte
0.84

allows per match

Uritarra
1.53
Beti Gazte
2.74

finishing

Uritarra+0.00on par
Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uritarra ↓

Beti Gazte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Uritarra or draw
77%
Uritarra or Beti Gazte
78%
Draw or Beti Gazte
45%

Winning margin

Uritarra wins by 2+
32%
Beti Gazte wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Uritarra 1+ goals
86%
Uritarra 2+ goals
58%
Uritarra 3+ goals
31%
Beti Gazte 1+ goals
70%
Beti Gazte 2+ goals
33%
Beti Gazte 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Uritarra (draw refunded)
70%
Beti Gazte (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uritarra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Beti Gazte away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uritarra attack 1.16 + Beti Gazte defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.95

Beti Gazte attack 0.84 + Uritarra defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Uritarra scores more
55%
level
22%
Beti Gazte scores more
23%

Uritarra at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Uritarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uritarra vs Beti Gazte

Beti Gazte beat Uritarra 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Errebale in Larrabetzu.