Beti Gazte 1–0 Uritarra: Result & Stats

Beti Gazte

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uritarra

2/12/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Campo de fútbol de Mastegi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beti Gazte34%

×Draw29%

Uritarra38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti GazteExpected goals in this matchUritarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.16

Beti Gazte

1.08

Uritarra

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

0.95

creates per match

0.84

1.47

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Beti Gazte

0.95

Uritarra

0.84

allows per match

Beti Gazte

1.47

Uritarra

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Uritarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Gazte ↓

Uritarra →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Beti Gazte or draw

62%

Beti Gazte or Uritarra

71%

Draw or Uritarra

66%

Winning margin

Beti Gazte wins by 2+

13%

Uritarra wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Beti Gazte 1+ goals

66%

Beti Gazte 2+ goals

29%

Beti Gazte 3+ goals

10%

Uritarra 1+ goals

69%

Uritarra 2+ goals

32%

Uritarra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)

47%

Uritarra (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Gazte at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Uritarra away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Gazte attack 0.95 + Uritarra defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Uritarra attack 0.84 + Beti Gazte defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beti Gazte scores more

34%

level

29%

Uritarra scores more

38%

Uritarra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uritarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beti Gazte vs Uritarra

Beti Gazte beat Uritarra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Mastegi in Lesaka.

Beti Gazte vs Uritarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Beti Gazte vs Uritarra