Urgatzi 1–3 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Urgatzi

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Real Sociedad III

11/21/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Urgatzi22%

×Draw22%

Real Sociedad III55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrgatziExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.90

Urgatzi

1.13

Real Sociedad III

1.90

Real Sociedad III creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

0.73

creates per match

1.66

2.13

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Urgatzi

0.73

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Urgatzi

2.13

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urgatzi+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urgatzi ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Urgatzi or draw

45%

Urgatzi or Real Sociedad III

78%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

78%

Winning margin

Urgatzi wins by 2+

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Urgatzi 1+ goals

68%

Urgatzi 2+ goals

31%

Urgatzi 3+ goals

11%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

85%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

56%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Urgatzi (draw refunded)

29%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urgatzi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urgatzi attack 0.73 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Urgatzi defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Urgatzi scores more

22%

level

22%

Real Sociedad III scores more

55%

Real Sociedad III at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Urgatzi 1–3 Real Sociedad III

Real Sociedad III beat Urgatzi 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Urgatzi vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Urgatzi 1–3 Real Sociedad III