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Real Sociedad III vs Urgatzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Urgatzi
Urgatzi
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Sociedad III81%
×Draw13%
Urgatzi6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad III
2.75
Urgatzi
0.63

Real Sociedad III creates 337% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad III
1.57
Urgatzi
0.33

allows per match

Real Sociedad III
0.93
Urgatzi
3.93

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par
Urgatzi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Urgatzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw
94%
Real Sociedad III or Urgatzi
87%
Draw or Urgatzi
19%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
60%
Urgatzi wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
93%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
75%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
51%
Urgatzi 1+ goals
47%
Urgatzi 2+ goals
13%
Urgatzi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
93%
Urgatzi (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Urgatzi away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Urgatzi defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.75

Urgatzi attack 0.33 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more
81%
level
13%
Urgatzi scores more
6%

Real Sociedad III at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Urgatzi

Real Sociedad III beat Urgatzi 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.