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Urgatzi vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urgatzi
Urgatzi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 7Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Urgatzi25%
×Draw25%
Lagun Onak50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urgatzi
1.02
Lagun Onak
1.55

Lagun Onak creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 114 away

creates per match

Urgatzi
0.73
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Urgatzi
2.13
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Urgatzi+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urgatzi ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Urgatzi or draw
50%
Urgatzi or Lagun Onak
75%
Draw or Lagun Onak
75%

Winning margin

Urgatzi wins by 2+
9%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Urgatzi 1+ goals
64%
Urgatzi 2+ goals
27%
Urgatzi 3+ goals
8%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
79%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
46%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Urgatzi (draw refunded)
33%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urgatzi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urgatzi attack 0.73 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Urgatzi defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Urgatzi scores more
25%
level
25%
Lagun Onak scores more
50%

Lagun Onak at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urgatzi vs Lagun Onak

Lagun Onak beat Urgatzi 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz in Vitoria-Gasteiz.