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Lagun Onak vs Urgatzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Urgatzi
Urgatzi
4/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lagun Onak79%
×Draw14%
Urgatzi7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagun Onak
2.64
Urgatzi
0.65

Lagun Onak creates 306% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lagun Onak
1.35
Urgatzi
0.33

allows per match

Lagun Onak
0.97
Urgatzi
3.93

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par
Urgatzi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Urgatzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw
93%
Lagun Onak or Urgatzi
86%
Draw or Urgatzi
21%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+
58%
Urgatzi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals
93%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
74%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
48%
Urgatzi 1+ goals
48%
Urgatzi 2+ goals
14%
Urgatzi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
92%
Urgatzi (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Urgatzi away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Urgatzi defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.64

Urgatzi attack 0.33 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Lagun Onak scores more
79%
level
14%
Urgatzi scores more
7%

Lagun Onak at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lagun Onak vs Urgatzi

Lagun Onak beat Urgatzi 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.