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Urena SC vs Real Frontera — Segunda División 2018

Urena SC
Urena SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Frontera
Real Frontera
3/17/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Complejo Deportivo UCAT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Urena SC47%
×Draw25%
Real Frontera28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urena SC
1.60
Real Frontera
1.18

Urena SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 105 away

creates per match

Urena SC
1.53
Real Frontera
1.29

allows per match

Urena SC
1.07
Real Frontera
1.67

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par
Real Frontera+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Real Frontera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw
72%
Urena SC or Real Frontera
75%
Draw or Real Frontera
53%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+
24%
Real Frontera wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals
80%
Urena SC 2+ goals
47%
Urena SC 3+ goals
22%
Real Frontera 1+ goals
69%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
33%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)
63%
Real Frontera (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Real Frontera away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.53 + Real Frontera defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + Urena SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Urena SC scores more
47%
level
25%
Real Frontera scores more
28%

Urena SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Urena SC 2–1 Real Frontera

Urena SC beat Real Frontera 2-1 in Segunda División on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo UCAT in San Cristóbal.