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Real Frontera vs Urena SC — Segunda División 2018

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Urena SC
Urena SC
2/21/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Real Frontera42%
×Draw25%
Urena SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
1.48
Urena SC
1.29

Real Frontera creates 15% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 115 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.38
Urena SC
1.28

allows per match

Real Frontera
1.29
Urena SC
1.57

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
Urena SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Urena SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
67%
Real Frontera or Urena SC
75%
Draw or Urena SC
58%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
20%
Urena SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
77%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
43%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
19%
Urena SC 1+ goals
72%
Urena SC 2+ goals
37%
Urena SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
56%
Urena SC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 104 matches

Urena SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.57 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.38 + Urena SC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Urena SC attack 1.28 + Real Frontera defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Frontera scores more
42%
level
25%
Urena SC scores more
33%

Real Frontera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real Frontera 1–1 Urena SC

Real Frontera and Urena SC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on February 21, 2026.