Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Frontera vs Urena SC — Copa Venezuela 2024

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Urena SC
Urena SC
7/9/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group BEstadio Sede Real Frontera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Real Frontera78%
×Draw13%
Urena SC8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
2.85
Urena SC
0.83

Real Frontera creates 243% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.29
Urena SC
0.80

allows per match

Real Frontera
0.86
Urena SC
4.40

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
Urena SC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Urena SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
92%
Real Frontera or Urena SC
87%
Draw or Urena SC
22%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
58%
Urena SC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
94%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
77%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
53%
Urena SC 1+ goals
56%
Urena SC 2+ goals
20%
Urena SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
90%
Urena SC (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Urena SC away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + Urena SC defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 2.85

Urena SC attack 0.80 + Real Frontera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Real Frontera scores more
78%
level
13%
Urena SC scores more
8%

Real Frontera at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Real Frontera 3–1 Urena SC

Real Frontera beat Urena SC 3-1 in Copa Venezuela on July 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sede Real Frontera in San Cristóbal.