Urena SC 2–0 Bolívar: Result & Stats

Urena SC

Pens

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bolívar

10/29/2023

Segunda División · Clausura - Semi-finalsPolideportivo Humberto Laurano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Urena SC51%

×Draw27%

Bolívar23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urena SCExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.87

Urena SC

1.45

Bolívar

0.87

Urena SC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 55 away

1.53

creates per match

0.67

1.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Urena SC

1.53

Bolívar

0.67

allows per match

Urena SC

1.07

Bolívar

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par

Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw

77%

Urena SC or Bolívar

73%

Draw or Bolívar

49%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+

25%

Bolívar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals

77%

Urena SC 2+ goals

42%

Urena SC 3+ goals

18%

Bolívar 1+ goals

58%

Bolívar 2+ goals

22%

Bolívar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)

69%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.53 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Urena SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Urena SC scores more

51%

level

27%

Bolívar scores more

23%

Urena SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff