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Bolívar vs Urena SC — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívaradvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Urena SC
Urena SC
11/29/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship - FinalCTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bolívar46%
×Draw26%
Urena SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.48
Urena SC
1.09

Bolívar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 115 away

creates per match

Bolívar
1.38
Urena SC
1.28

allows per match

Bolívar
0.91
Urena SC
1.57

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Urena SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Urena SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
72%
Bolívar or Urena SC
74%
Draw or Urena SC
54%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
23%
Urena SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
77%
Bolívar 2+ goals
43%
Bolívar 3+ goals
19%
Urena SC 1+ goals
66%
Urena SC 2+ goals
30%
Urena SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
62%
Urena SC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Urena SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.57 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Urena SC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Urena SC attack 1.28 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bolívar scores more
46%
level
26%
Urena SC scores more
28%

Bolívar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bolívar 2–1 Urena SC

Bolívar beat Urena SC 2-1 in Segunda División on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.