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Urduliz vs Eibar III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urduliz
Urduliz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eibar III
Eibar III
3/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Estadio Iparralde-Urduliz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Urduliz45%
×Draw26%
Eibar III29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urduliz
1.44
Eibar III
1.11

Urduliz creates 30% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Urduliz
1.09
Eibar III
1.12

allows per match

Urduliz
1.10
Eibar III
1.79

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par
Eibar III+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Eibar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw
71%
Urduliz or Eibar III
74%
Draw or Eibar III
55%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+
22%
Eibar III wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals
76%
Urduliz 2+ goals
42%
Urduliz 3+ goals
18%
Eibar III 1+ goals
67%
Eibar III 2+ goals
30%
Eibar III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)
60%
Eibar III (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Eibar III away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Eibar III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Eibar III attack 1.12 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Urduliz scores more
45%
level
26%
Eibar III scores more
29%

Urduliz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urduliz vs Eibar III

Urduliz and Eibar III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Iparralde-Urduliz in Urduliz.