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Eibar III vs Urduliz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Eibar III
Eibar III
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Urduliz
Urduliz
11/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eibar III47%
×Draw25%
Urduliz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar III
1.55
Urduliz
1.12

Eibar III creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 96 away

creates per match

Eibar III
1.53
Urduliz
0.98

allows per match

Eibar III
1.26
Urduliz
1.57

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par
Urduliz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

Urduliz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw
73%
Eibar III or Urduliz
75%
Draw or Urduliz
53%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+
24%
Urduliz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals
79%
Eibar III 2+ goals
46%
Eibar III 3+ goals
20%
Urduliz 1+ goals
67%
Urduliz 2+ goals
31%
Urduliz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)
63%
Urduliz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Urduliz away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + Urduliz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Urduliz attack 0.98 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eibar III scores more
47%
level
25%
Urduliz scores more
27%

Eibar III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eibar III vs Urduliz

Eibar III beat Urduliz 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior in Eibar.