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Urduliz vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urduliz
Urduliz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
9/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Estadio Iparralde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Urduliz42%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés III30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urduliz
1.25
Deportivo Alavés III
1.02

Urduliz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 51 away

creates per match

Urduliz
1.09
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Urduliz
1.10
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw
70%
Urduliz or Deportivo Alavés III
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
58%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals
71%
Urduliz 2+ goals
36%
Urduliz 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)
58%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Urduliz scores more
42%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
30%

Urduliz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Urduliz 2–0 Deportivo Alavés III

Urduliz beat Deportivo Alavés III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Iparralde in Urduliz.