Deportivo Alavés III 2–2 Urduliz: Result & Stats

Deportivo Alavés III

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Urduliz

4/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III52%

×Draw25%

Urduliz23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIIExpected goals in this matchUrduliz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.99

Deportivo Alavés III

1.61

Urduliz

0.99

Deportivo Alavés III creates 63% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

1.65

creates per match

0.98

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.65

Urduliz

0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.00

Urduliz

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Urduliz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Urduliz →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw

77%

Deportivo Alavés III or Urduliz

75%

Draw or Urduliz

48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+

27%

Urduliz wins by 2+

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals

22%

Urduliz 1+ goals

63%

Urduliz 2+ goals

26%

Urduliz 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)

69%

Urduliz (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Urduliz away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Urduliz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Urduliz attack 0.98 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more

52%

level

25%

Urduliz scores more

23%

Deportivo Alavés III at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deportivo Alavés III 2–2 Urduliz

Deportivo Alavés III and Urduliz drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés III vs Urduliz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deportivo Alavés III 2–2 Urduliz