Urawa 1–0 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

4/11/2021

J1 League · Round 9Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Urawa51%

×Draw26%

Tokushima Vortis24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

Urawa

1.54

Tokushima Vortis

0.96

Urawa creates 60% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 20 away

1.49

creates per match

0.85

1.07

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Urawa

1.49

Tokushima Vortis

0.85

allows per match

Urawa

1.07

Tokushima Vortis

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

76%

Urawa or Tokushima Vortis

74%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

49%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

26%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

79%

Urawa 2+ goals

45%

Urawa 3+ goals

20%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

62%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

25%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

68%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.07 · 152 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.85 + Urawa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Urawa scores more

51%

level

26%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

24%

Urawa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff