Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Urawa: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Urawa

T. Sekine 62'

8/21/2021

J1 League · Round 25Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tokushima Vortis31%

×Draw28%

Urawa41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.27

Tokushima Vortis

1.08

Urawa

1.27

Urawa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 153 away

0.90

creates per match

1.08

1.45

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

Urawa

1.08

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.45

Urawa

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Urawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

59%

Tokushima Vortis or Urawa

72%

Draw or Urawa

69%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

12%

Urawa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

66%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

29%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

10%

Urawa 1+ goals

72%

Urawa 2+ goals

36%

Urawa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

44%

Urawa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.90 + Urawa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Urawa attack 1.08 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

31%

level

28%

Urawa scores more

41%

Urawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Iwao

Tokushima Vortis · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

46'

62'

66'

66'

A. Ito← Y. Hirano

68'

M. Watai← Y. Kakita

69'

T. Nishino← K. Sugimori

72'

T. Okubo← K. Yuruki

77'

S. Fujita← Diego

77'

H. Ishii← S. Fukuoka

79'

Y. Konishi← J. Fujita

85'

Seiya Fujita

85'

Takahiro Akimoto

87'

T. Ugajin← T. Sekine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TokushimaUrawa

Overview

66%Possession34%

10Total Shots7

8Corners4

13Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots7

2On Target3

5Off Target2

3Blocked2

3Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

642Total Passes329

576Accurate Passes252

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1