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Urawa vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Urawa
Urawa
Preview
10:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
4/3/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 28Saitama Stadium
Big match
50%
Urawa
model favours
50%26%24%

Urawa score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Urawa50%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.50
Shimizu S-pulse
0.94

Urawa creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.50
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

Urawa
0.85
Shimizu S-pulse
1.50

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
76%
Urawa or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
50%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
25%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
78%
Urawa 2+ goals
44%
Urawa 3+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
61%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
24%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
68%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.50 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Urawa defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Urawa scores more
50%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
24%

Urawa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
  • Urawa win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Urawa
Defensively solid
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
58%PossessionBiggest gap51%
83%Pass accuracy79%
13.8Shots12.5
1.28xG1.23
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
UrawaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Urawa
3
Draws
0
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 80%
0–02–11–11–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Urawa
LDLDW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Urawa host Shimizu S-pulse

April 3, 2027: Urawa take on Shimizu S-pulse in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Urawa host Shimizu S-pulse at Saitama Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.