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Urawa vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Urawa
Urawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Matheus Savio 59'
R. Watanabe 4'
S. Nishikawa 79' (OG)
4/2/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 8Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Urawa50%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.50
Shimizu S-pulse
0.94

Urawa creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.50
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

Urawa
0.85
Shimizu S-pulse
1.50

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
76%
Urawa or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
50%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
25%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
78%
Urawa 2+ goals
44%
Urawa 3+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
61%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
24%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
68%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.50 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Urawa defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Urawa scores more
50%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
24%

Urawa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
R. WatanabeUrawaUrawa · M
7.9

Match Events

4'
R. Watanabe↳ Matheus Savio
42'
Ahmed Ahmedov
46'
K. Matsuzaki← H. Nakahara
46'
T. Inui← M. Nishihara
46'
K. Kitagawa← A. Ahmedov
59'
Matheus Savio
60'
Capixaba← Y. Yoshida
72'
S. Gustafson← Y. Matsuo
72'
T. Sekine← Matheus Savio
72'
S. Yajima← Z. Uno
77'
G. Haraguchi← R. Watanabe
77'
T. Okubo← T. Matsumoto
79'
S. NishikawaOwn goal
90+2'
Samuel Gustafson
90+6'
Y. Naganuma← T. Ogiwara

Possession

44%Urawa

Shots

8Urawa

Pass accuracy

49%Urawa

Statistics

UrawaShimizu
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots22
0.26Expected Goals (xG)1.04
1Corners14
12Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots22
3On Target6
2Off Target9
3Blocked7
5Inside Box13
3Outside Box9
Passing
44%Possession56%
452Total Passes537
375Accurate Passes457
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

J1 League: Urawa 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse

Urawa beat Shimizu S-pulse 2-1 in J1 League on April 2, 2025.

Goals: R. Watanabe (4'), Matheus Savio (59'), S. Nishikawa (79' o.g.).

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (56%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.