Shimizu S-pulse 0–0 Urawa: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Urawa

9/23/2025

J1 League · Round 31IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse32%

×Draw23%

Urawa44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.72

Shimizu S-pulse

1.44

Urawa

1.72

Urawa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.47

creates per match

1.60

1.84

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.47

Urawa

1.60

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.84

Urawa

1.40

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.47scores less

Urawa-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

56%

Shimizu S-pulse or Urawa

77%

Draw or Urawa

68%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

15%

Urawa wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

76%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

42%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

18%

Urawa 1+ goals

82%

Urawa 2+ goals

51%

Urawa 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

42%

Urawa (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.84 · 8 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.47 + Urawa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Urawa attack 1.60 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

32%

level

23%

Urawa scores more

44%

Urawa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Umeda

Shimizu S-pulse

9.3

Match Events

46'

S. Takagi← K. Kitazume

46'

S. Yajima← K. Miyamoto

56'

T. Inui← K. Kozuka

56'

T. Takahashi← K. Matsuzaki

63'

K. Shibato← K. Yasui

63'

T. Kaneko← T. Sekine

73'

S. Nakajima← Matheus Savio

73'

Y. Matsuo← R. Watanabe

83'

J. Hayakawa← S. Gustafson

85'

H. Nakahara← K. Kitagawa

90+1'

Hikaru Nakahara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuUrawa

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots23

0.65Expected Goals (xG)3.23

6Corners5

10Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots23

2On Target9

4Off Target10

3Blocked4

5Inside Box15

4Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

437Total Passes577

367Accurate Passes507

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0