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Urawa vs SHANGHAI SIPG — AFC Champions League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
9/17/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsSaitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Urawa64%
×Draw21%
SHANGHAI SIPG15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.96
SHANGHAI SIPG
0.82

Urawa creates 139% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Urawa
2.24
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.05

allows per match

Urawa
0.59
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
85%
Urawa or SHANGHAI SIPG
79%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
36%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
39%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
86%
Urawa 2+ goals
58%
Urawa 3+ goals
31%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
56%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
20%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
81%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 2.24 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Urawa defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Urawa scores more
64%
level
21%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
15%

Urawa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urawa vs SHANGHAI SIPG

Urawa and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on September 17, 2019.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.