SHANGHAI SIPG 2–2 Urawa: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Urawa

8/27/2019

AFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsShanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG27%

×Draw25%

Urawa48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.61

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.16

Urawa

1.61

Urawa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.32

creates per match

1.75

1.48

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.32

Urawa

1.75

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.48

Urawa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Urawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

52%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Urawa

75%

Draw or Urawa

73%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

11%

Urawa wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

69%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

32%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

11%

Urawa 1+ goals

80%

Urawa 2+ goals

48%

Urawa 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

37%

Urawa (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Urawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Urawa attack 1.75 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

27%

level

25%

Urawa scores more

48%

Urawa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff