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Urawa vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4/25/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 12Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Urawa33%
×Draw30%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
0.99
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Urawa
0.86
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.23

allows per match

Urawa
0.90
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.13

finishing

Urawa-0.03on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.10scores more

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
63%
Urawa or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
70%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
67%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
12%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
63%
Urawa 2+ goals
26%
Urawa 3+ goals
8%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
65%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
29%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
47%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 0.86 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.23 + Urawa defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Urawa scores more
33%
level
30%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
37%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urawa vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Urawa beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 in J1 League on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.