Urawa 3–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

11/10/2024

J1 League · Round 36Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Urawa35%

×Draw29%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

Urawa

1.09

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

0.99

creates per match

1.21

0.97

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Urawa

0.99

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.21

allows per match

Urawa

0.97

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.19

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Urawa+0.14scores more

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.07on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

65%

Urawa or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

71%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

65%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

14%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

66%

Urawa 2+ goals

30%

Urawa 3+ goals

10%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

66%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

30%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

50%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.19 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 0.99 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.21 + Urawa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Urawa scores more

35%

level

29%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

35%

Urawa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff