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Urawa vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
Thiago Santana 90+10' (pen)
10/23/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Urawa39%
×Draw26%
Kashiwa Reysol35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.39
Kashiwa Reysol
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.36
Kashiwa Reysol
1.40

allows per match

Urawa
1.21
Kashiwa Reysol
1.42

finishing

Urawa+0.06on par
Kashiwa Reysol-0.19scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
65%
Urawa or Kashiwa Reysol
74%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
61%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
18%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
75%
Urawa 2+ goals
40%
Urawa 3+ goals
16%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
73%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
37%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
53%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.36 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.40 + Urawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urawa scores more
39%
level
26%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
35%

Urawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. NishikawaUrawaUrawa · G
7.5

Match Events

40'
Hirokazu Ishihara
46'
Y. Yamada← T. Koyamatsu
67'
Thiago Santana← B. Linssen
67'
T. Sekine← T. Okubo
75'
S. Nakajima← Y. Matsuo
75'
G. Haraguchi← S. Gustafson
80'
K. Kumasaka← K. Tezuka
80'
J. Grot← K. Kinoshita
82'
Marius Höibraten
90+6'
Thiago SantanaPenalty confirmed
90+3'
Y. Naganuma← A. Ohata
90+10'
Thiago SantanaPenalty

Possession

60%Urawa

Shots

12Urawa

Pass accuracy

52%Urawa

Statistics

UrawaKashiwa
Overview
60%Possession40%
12Total Shots9
1.79Expected Goals (xG)0.32
2Corners4
16Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots9
5On Target3
2Off Target4
5Blocked2
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
554Total Passes363
452Accurate Passes276
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls8
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

J1 League: Urawa 1–0 Kashiwa Reysol

Urawa beat Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 in J1 League on October 23, 2024.

Goals: Thiago Santana (90+10' pen).

Urawa controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium 2002 in Saitama.