Kashiwa Reysol 4–2 Urawa: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Urawa

Y. Konishi 90'

T. Kubo 90'

M. Hosoya 83'

Y. Segawa 54'

Y. Matsuo 43'

Y. Naganuma 5'

8/22/2025

J1 League · Round 27Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol42%

×Draw26%

Urawa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.18

Kashiwa Reysol

1.39

Urawa

1.18

Kashiwa Reysol creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 29 away

1.21

creates per match

1.09

1.27

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.21

Urawa

1.09

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.27

Urawa

1.57

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.12scores more

Urawa-0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

68%

Kashiwa Reysol or Urawa

74%

Draw or Urawa

58%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

20%

Urawa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

75%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

40%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

16%

Urawa 1+ goals

69%

Urawa 2+ goals

33%

Urawa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

57%

Urawa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 18 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.57 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.21 + Urawa defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Urawa attack 1.09 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

42%

level

26%

Urawa scores more

32%

Kashiwa Reysol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Kubo

Kashiwa Reysol · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

5'

29'

39'

43'

46'

D. Sugioka← H. Mitsumaru

46'

Y. Segawa← Y. Kakita

54'

Y. Segawa↳ D. Sugioka

57'

T. Ogiwara← T. Sekine

63'

M. Hosoya← Y. Koizumi

64'

Thiago← Y. Matsuo

73'

H. Nakama← M. Watai

74'

Y. Konishi← Y. Yamada

79'

T. Matsumoto← Matheus Savio

79'

G. Haraguchi← H. Ishihara

79'

T. Okubo← T. Kaneko

83'

M. Hosoya↳ Y. Segawa

90'

Y. Konishi↳ T. Koyamatsu

90'

T. Kubo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KashiwaUrawa

Overview

70%Possession30%

24Total Shots7

2.94Expected Goals (xG)1.08

7Corners3

5Fouls6

Shots

24Total Shots7

9On Target5

8Off Target1

7Blocked1

15Inside Box5

9Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

697Total Passes304

629Accurate Passes230

90%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls6

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0