Urawa vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Urawa34%
Gamba Osaka36%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 5 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Urawa ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Urawa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches
Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Urawa attack 0.84 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04
Gamba Osaka attack 1.18 + Urawa defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Gamba Osaka at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Kawasaki Frontale
Yokohama F. Marinos
Vissel Kobe
Kashima
Nagoya GrampusUrawa
Sagan Tosu
Avispa Fukuoka
FC Tokyo
Consadole Sapporo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo OsakaGamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
Kashiwa Reysol
Shonan Bellmare
Tokushima Vortis
Oita Trinita
Vegalta Sendai
Yokohama FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Urawa host Gamba Osaka on Tuesday, 6 May 2025 at 05:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2021/2022 season.
Urawa 0 – 1 Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka beat Urawa 1-0 in J1 League on May 6, 2025.
Goals: R. Yamashita (53').
Urawa controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 12.
The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.