Gamba Osaka 0–1 Urawa: Result & Stats | J1 League

Gamba Osaka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Urawa

T. Sekine 49'

9/14/2024

J1 League · Round 30Panasonic Stadium Suita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Gamba Osaka39%

×Draw28%

Urawa33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

Gamba Osaka

1.25

Urawa

1.12

Gamba Osaka creates 12% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 100 away

1.35

creates per match

0.98

1.26

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.35

Urawa

0.98

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.26

Urawa

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Urawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

67%

Gamba Osaka or Urawa

72%

Draw or Urawa

61%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

17%

Urawa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

71%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

36%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

13%

Urawa 1+ goals

67%

Urawa 2+ goals

31%

Urawa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

54%

Urawa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 98 matches

Urawa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.35 + Urawa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Urawa attack 0.98 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

39%

level

28%

Urawa scores more

33%

Gamba Osaka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Sekine

Urawa · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Dawhan

49'

T. Sekine↳ R. Watanabe

57'

K. Yamada← R. Meshino

58'

R. Mito← T. Suzuki

66'

T. Kishimoto← R. Matsuda

66'

R. Yamashita← I. Sakamoto

68'

Thiago Santana← B. Linssen

68'

Y. Matsuo← T. Sekine

76'

N. Maeda← T. Okubo

76'

G. Haraguchi← S. Gustafson

90+1'

Y. Koizumi← K. Yasui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GambaUrawa

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots7

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.35

4Corners3

4Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots7

3On Target2

7Off Target4

7Blocked1

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

518Total Passes361

448Accurate Passes282

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1