Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urawa vs Beijing Guoan — AFC Champions League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
5/21/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Urawa68%
×Draw19%
Beijing Guoan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
2.12
Beijing Guoan
0.79

Urawa creates 168% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Urawa
2.24
Beijing Guoan
1.00

allows per match

Urawa
0.59
Beijing Guoan
2.00

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
87%
Urawa or Beijing Guoan
81%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
32%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
43%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
88%
Urawa 2+ goals
62%
Urawa 3+ goals
35%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
55%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
19%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
84%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 2.24 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + Urawa defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Urawa scores more
68%
level
19%
Beijing Guoan scores more
13%

Urawa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urawa vs Beijing Guoan

Urawa beat Beijing Guoan 3-0 in AFC Champions League on May 21, 2019.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.