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Beijing Guoan vs Urawa — AFC Champions League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Urawa
Urawa
3/13/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Beijing Guoan24%
×Draw24%
Urawa52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
1.10
Urawa
1.73

Urawa creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
1.20
Urawa
1.75

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.70
Urawa
1.00

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Urawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Urawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
48%
Beijing Guoan or Urawa
76%
Draw or Urawa
76%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
9%
Urawa wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
67%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
30%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
10%
Urawa 1+ goals
82%
Urawa 2+ goals
52%
Urawa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
32%
Urawa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 + Urawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Urawa attack 1.75 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
24%
level
24%
Urawa scores more
52%

Urawa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Beijing Guoan 0–0 Urawa

Beijing Guoan and Urawa drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on March 13, 2019.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.