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Urania Baška Voda vs Neretva Metković — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
2 – 2
Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
8/27/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda45%
×Draw24%
Neretva Metković31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.66
Neretva Metković
1.32

Urania Baška Voda creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
Neretva Metković
1.44

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
Neretva Metković
1.77

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Neretva Metković →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
69%
Urania Baška Voda or Neretva Metković
76%
Draw or Neretva Metković
55%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
24%
Neretva Metković wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
81%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
49%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
23%
Neretva Metković 1+ goals
73%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
38%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
60%
Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.66

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
45%
level
24%
Neretva Metković scores more
31%

Urania Baška Voda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urania Baška Voda vs Neretva Metković

Urania Baška Voda and Neretva Metković drew 2-2 in Third NL - Jug on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.