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Neretva Metković vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
3 – 2
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
9/11/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Neretva Metković61%
×Draw21%
Urania Baška Voda17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
1.96
Urania Baška Voda
0.93

Neretva Metković creates 111% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
83%
Neretva Metković or Urania Baška Voda
79%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
39%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
37%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
86%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
58%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
31%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
61%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
24%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
78%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.96

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
61%
level
21%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
17%

Neretva Metković at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Neretva Metković 3–2 Urania Baška Voda

Neretva Metković beat Urania Baška Voda 3-2 in Third NL - Jug on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište Iza Vage in Metković.