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Urania Baška Voda vs Jadran LP — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
5/22/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 33Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Urania Baška Voda43%
×Draw27%
Jadran LP30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.35
Jadran LP
1.07

Urania Baška Voda creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 42 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
Jadran LP
0.93

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
Jadran LP
1.17

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
70%
Urania Baška Voda or Jadran LP
73%
Draw or Jadran LP
57%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
20%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
74%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
39%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
15%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
66%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
29%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
59%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Jadran LP defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Jadran LP attack 0.93 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
43%
level
27%
Jadran LP scores more
30%

Urania Baška Voda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urania Baška Voda vs Jadran LP

Jadran LP beat Urania Baška Voda 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.