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Jadran LP vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
1 – 2
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
10/24/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 11Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jadran LP75%
×Draw16%
Urania Baška Voda9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.44
Urania Baška Voda
0.73

Jadran LP creates 234% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 57 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.76
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

Jadran LP
0.64
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
91%
Jadran LP or Urania Baška Voda
84%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
25%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
52%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
91%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
70%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
43%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
52%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
17%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
89%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.64 · 42 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.76 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.44

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Jadran LP defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Jadran LP scores more
75%
level
16%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
9%

Jadran LP at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran LP vs Urania Baška Voda

Urania Baška Voda beat Jadran LP 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.