Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urania Baška Voda vs HNK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
0 – 1
HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
2/19/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda35%
×Draw26%
HNK Zadar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.31
HNK Zadar
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 77 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
HNK Zadar
1.58

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
HNK Zadar
1.09

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

HNK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
61%
Urania Baška Voda or HNK Zadar
74%
Draw or HNK Zadar
65%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
15%
HNK Zadar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
73%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
38%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
14%
HNK Zadar 1+ goals
75%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
41%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
47%
HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
35%
level
26%
HNK Zadar scores more
39%

HNK Zadar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urania Baška Voda vs HNK Zadar

HNK Zadar beat Urania Baška Voda 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.