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HNK Zadar vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
1 – 0
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
8/28/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

HNK Zadar74%
×Draw16%
Urania Baška Voda10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.49
Urania Baška Voda
0.78

HNK Zadar creates 219% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 57 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
90%
HNK Zadar or Urania Baška Voda
84%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
26%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
52%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
92%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
71%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
45%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
54%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
18%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
88%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.49

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
74%
level
16%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
10%

HNK Zadar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNK Zadar 1 – 0 Urania Baška Voda

HNK Zadar beat Urania Baška Voda 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.