Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2–0 Lada Tolyatti

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lada Tolyatti

N. Kuznetsov 78'

A. Yusupov 51'

8/31/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Uralets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil65%

×Draw20%

Lada Tolyatti15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uralets Nizhnyi TagilExpected goals in this matchLada Tolyatti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.85

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

2.06

Lada Tolyatti

0.85

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil creates 142% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

1.18

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.18

Lada Tolyatti

0.71

allows per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.00

Lada Tolyatti

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil+0.00on par

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil ↓

Lada Tolyatti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or draw

85%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or Lada Tolyatti

80%

Draw or Lada Tolyatti

35%

Winning margin

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil wins by 2+

41%

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1+ goals

87%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2+ goals

61%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3+ goals

34%

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

57%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

21%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil (draw refunded)

82%

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.18 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil scores more

65%

level

20%

Lada Tolyatti scores more

15%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Yudin← M. Smolnikov

51'

A. Yusupov

63'

R. Gogniev← V. Pyanchenko

71'

Y. Rudakov← A. Yusupov

73'

N. Kuznetsov← V. Abramov

77'

G. Paskin← S. Sorokin

78'

N. Kuznetsov

82'

A. Dyakonov← D. Kleyner

87'

L. Kadermetov← E. Makarov

Uralets

Lada

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Yusupov

▼

Smolnikov

Manager: I. Bakhtin

46'▲D. Yudin←▼M. Smolnikov

71'▲Y. Rudakov←▼A. Yusupov

73'▲N. Kuznetsov←▼V. Abramov

87'▲L. Kadermetov←▼E. Makarov

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil substitutes

YudinRudakovKuznetsovKadermetov

Manager: V. Shcherbak

63'▲R. Gogniev←▼V. Pyanchenko

77'▲G. Paskin←▼S. Sorokin

82'▲A. Dyakonov←▼D. Kleyner

Lada Tolyatti substitutes

GognievPaskinDyakonov