Lada Tolyatti 0–1 Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

Lada Tolyatti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

5/25/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion Kristall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lada Tolyatti26%

×Draw24%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lada TolyattiExpected goals in this matchUralets Nizhnyi Tagil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.66

Lada Tolyatti

1.13

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.66

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil creates 47% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

2.29

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti

1.00

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.03

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti

2.29

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw

50%

Lada Tolyatti or Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

76%

Draw or Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

74%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

10%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

68%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

31%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

11%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1+ goals

81%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2+ goals

49%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

34%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.03 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more

26%

level

24%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil scores more

50%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff