Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1–3 Dinamo Barnaul

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Barnaul

4/21/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Uralets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil49%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Barnaul26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uralets Nizhnyi TagilExpected goals in this matchDinamo Barnaul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.09

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.61

Dinamo Barnaul

1.09

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 83 away

1.18

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.18

Dinamo Barnaul

1.18

allows per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.00

Dinamo Barnaul

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil+0.00on par

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil ↓

Dinamo Barnaul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or draw

74%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or Dinamo Barnaul

75%

Draw or Dinamo Barnaul

51%

Winning margin

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil wins by 2+

26%

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1+ goals

80%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2+ goals

48%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3+ goals

22%

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil (draw refunded)

66%

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Dinamo Barnaul away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.18 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.18 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil scores more

49%

level

25%

Dinamo Barnaul scores more

26%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff