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Dinamo Barnaul vs Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil — Second League - Group 4 2020

Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
7/28/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Barnaul41%
×Draw27%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Barnaul
1.31
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.13

Dinamo Barnaul creates 16% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.37
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.03

allows per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.23
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.26

finishing

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Barnaul ↓

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Barnaul or draw
68%
Dinamo Barnaul or Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
73%
Draw or Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
59%

Winning margin

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
18%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
14%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1+ goals
68%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2+ goals
31%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
56%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Barnaul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.37 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.03 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Barnaul scores more
41%
level
27%
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil scores more
32%

Dinamo Barnaul at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Dinamo Barnaul 3–1 Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

Dinamo Barnaul beat Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3-1 in Second League - Group 4 on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Barnaul.