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Ural vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2024

Ural
Ural
Preview
15:00
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
5/8/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Yekaterinburg Arena
Big match
53%
Ural
model favours
53%25%22%
1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural53%
×Draw25%
Ska-khabarovsk22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.61
Ska-khabarovsk
0.94

Ural creates 71% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Ska-khabarovsk
0.98

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Ska-khabarovsk
1.51

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ural or draw
78%
Ural or Ska-khabarovsk
75%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
47%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
28%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
80%
Ural 2+ goals
48%
Ural 3+ goals
22%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
61%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
24%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
71%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.51 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.98 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ural scores more
53%
level
25%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
22%

Ural at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ural
LDWLL
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ural vs Ska-khabarovsk — Match Preview

Ural face Ska-khabarovsk on May 8, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ural host Ska-khabarovsk at Yekaterinburg Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.