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Ural vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
I. Ishkov 69'
D. Tsypchenko 50', 41' (pen)
9/29/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Yekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural52%
×Draw25%
Ska-khabarovsk23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.59
Ska-khabarovsk
0.98

Ural creates 62% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 141 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ural or draw
77%
Ural or Ska-khabarovsk
75%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
48%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
27%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
80%
Ural 2+ goals
47%
Ural 3+ goals
21%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
62%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
26%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
69%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.06 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ural scores more
52%
level
25%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
23%

Ural at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
D. TsypchenkoPenalty
46'
I. Ishkov← E. Mosin
50'
D. Tsypchenko
54'
Italo← G. Miguel
61'
V. Bondarev← F. Sungatulin
61'
M. Voronov← R. Akbashev
69'
I. Ishkov
75'
R. Emeljanov← J. A. Tur
84'
V. Karapuzov← E. Kharin
84'
V. Bragin← J. Alcalde

Statistics

UralSka-khabarovsk
Discipline
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ural vs Ska-khabarovsk

Ska-khabarovsk beat Ural 2-1 in First League on September 29, 2025.

Goals: D. Tsypchenko (41' pen, 50'), I. Ishkov (69').

The match was played at Yekaterinburg Arena in Yekaterinburg.