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Ural vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
M. Voronov 74'
M. Sekulić 43'
S. Bessmertny 31'
A. Gagloev 90+3' (pen)
5/24/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural52%
×Draw25%
Ska-khabarovsk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.59
Ska-khabarovsk
0.98

Ural creates 62% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 141 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ural or draw
77%
Ural or Ska-khabarovsk
75%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
48%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
27%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
80%
Ural 2+ goals
47%
Ural 3+ goals
21%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
62%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
26%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
69%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.06 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ural scores more
52%
level
25%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
23%

Ural at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Nikolay Pokidyshev
31'
S. Bessmertny
40'
Stanislav Bessmertniy
43'
M. Sekulić
63'
N. Morozov← I. Ishkov
63'
M. Voronov← A. Egorychev
63'
F. Sungatulin← V. Bondarev
68'
A. Gagloev← Borja Martínez
68'
A. Gongapshev← K. Aliev
72'
Vladislav Malkevich
73'
E. Markov← M. Sekulić
73'
M. Beveev← S. Bessmertny
74'
M. Voronov
76'
Silvije Begić
76'
Georgi Gongadze
84'
S. Bagiev← R. Emelyanov
84'
A. Maksimenko← R. Gadzhimuradov
88'
Nikita Morozov
90+3'
A. GagloevPenalty

Statistics

UralSka-khabarovsk
Discipline
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ural vs Ska-khabarovsk

Ural beat Ska-khabarovsk 3-1 in First League on May 24, 2025.

Goals: S. Bessmertny (31'), M. Sekulić (43'), M. Voronov (74'), A. Gagloev (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.