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Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2024

Ural
Ural
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
9/12/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Yekaterinburg Arena
Big match
51%
Ural
model favours
51%27%22%

Ural have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural51%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.83

Ural creates 73% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.77

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.18

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ural or draw
78%
Ural or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
49%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
76%
Ural 2+ goals
42%
Ural 3+ goals
18%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
56%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
20%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
70%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.77 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ural scores more
51%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
22%

Ural at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ural
LDWLL
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Match Preview

Ural face Shinnik Yaroslavl on September 12, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ural host Shinnik Yaroslavl at Yekaterinburg Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.